Deciphering the recent Fed announcements
We discuss two important announcements the Federal Reserve made last week – unwinding “Operation Twist” and an unemployment-driven rate guidance.
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Author Archive for Mike Dueker
Mike Dueker is Head Economist, North America
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Can the U.S. economy “thread the needle” this year?
In terms of fiscal policy, this year hasn’t quite gotten off to the start we had hoped for regarding the fiscal cliff and sequestration. But our central scenario still assumes that lawmakers will avoid creating a U.S. recession and includes upside potential for equities, despite likely politically-driven volatility.
Russell’s view: Eurozone
Following inconclusive elections on May 6th, Greece is back in the headlines and the uncertainty about its future as a member of the Eurozone has stirred up market volatility again. There’s little question that the situation in Europe is having an impact on the U.S. economy: employment figures for May were disappointing (only 69,000 jobs
Taxing Times: What’s next after the Super Committee punted?
Congress has garnered a reputation for haggling until the last minute. But two days before its November 23rd deadline, the bipartisan budget Super Committee – which had been chartered in August with presenting Congress with a plan for cutting the deficit by $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years – announced that it would fail
Global Outlook: Our perspective through year-end
Following is a brief summary of our perspective on the prospects for the U.S. and European economies through the end of 2011. U.S. Recession fears appear overblown At Russell, we still stand firm in our opinion that, barring further negative shocks, the current trajectory of the U.S. economy does not point to a recession. The
Is the U.S. vaccinated against Japanese-style economic stagnation?
If you’re worried about the U.S. falling into a decades-long, demographic-induced economic stagnation, you might not be off-base. There are definitely some parallels between Japan’s decades-long economic situation and ours now. But, coincidences aside, at Russell we believe the U.S. currently has an effective vaccine against the demographic-induced period of stagnation à la Japan. The
Russell’s View: Thoughts ahead of Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole
When Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, addresses the Federal Reserve at their annual meeting in Jackson Hole, WY, on Friday, August 26, it is our view that he will most likely dedicate his speech to providing details on the Fed’s economic forecast and why it feels safe in committing to hold rates down until mid-2013… all
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